A paper by Dr. Mizanur Rahman(Associate Professor, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University)titled “Reversing fertility decline in Japan with foreign pro-natalist policies, 1990–2035: a systematic review and secondary data analysis” has just published in “The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific”.
Md Mizanur Rahman, Haruka Sakamoto, Sabera Sultana, Miho Sassa, Md Ashraful Alam, Kenji Shibuya. (2025). Reversing fertility decline in Japan with foreign pro-natalist policies, 1990–2035: a systematic review and secondary data analysis,
The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific, Volume 59, June 2025, 101596
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2025.101596
Message from paper:
Our study systematically reviews global pro-natalist policies and analyzes their potential to reverse declining fertility rates in Japan, using scenario-based projections up to 2035.
Key insights: ✅ Cash benefit policies (birth payments, allowances, paid parental leave, childcare coverage) are most effective at boosting fertility. ✅ Current Japanese policies have a limited likelihood (only 12% by 2030) of reversing fertility declines. ✅ Increasing Japan's cash benefits to match countries like Australia, Hungary, and France could raise this likelihood significantly (up to 79% by 2030).
These findings highlight the crucial role of targeted financial incentives and comprehensive policy strategies to address demographic challenges in Japan.